Influence of air quality on the expected burden on the health care system in the event of pandemics

Infectious diseases, whose spread in the worst case has the character of a pandemic, influence our behavior in different ways. Different measures were proclaimed to prevent infection or at least reduce its probability (e.g., hygienic rules, “social distancing”, stay-at-home policy). These measures do not only have a direct effect on the probability of infections with COVID-19 but also affect human health for other reasons. These effects can be positive as well as negative: Air pollutants weaken the human defense mechanisms and lead to increased vulnerability, i.e., easier infection and/or more severe disease progression. If air pollutant levels are reduced - as it happened due to the stay-at-home policy - positive effects on health have already been observed in the past (e.g., Olympic Games in Beijing). On the other hand, people no longer go to preventive medical checkups or seek treatment for fear of infection. Surgeries are cancelled to free up capacity for patients requiring hospitalization in the case of COVID-19, which can negatively affect human health.

1. To model the inter-relationship between environmental stressors and virus-borne infections that can lead to pandemics.
2. To understand the impact of the lockdown disease burden, mediated either via environmental stressors or via other routes. To address this question, we will analyze the relationship between changes in air quality and other (non-COVID-19 associated) respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.
3. To model the relative lockdown effects via contact rates and versus alterations in air quality. This objective will be addressed by modeling the disease spread via stay-at-home policy/hygiene practices and by including empirical estimates of air quality influences. Moreover, we will also include a calculation of the burden to the health care system.

Daily cause-specific mortality and morbidity data for German cities and counties in 2016-2020.

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (funding period: end of 2021 - 2024)

• Universität Augsburg, Institute of Physics: Michael Bittner

• Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, IBE-Chair of Epidemiology/Helmholtz Zentrum München, Institute of Epidemiology: Susanne Breitner-Busch, Anne Marb

• German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Aerospace Medicine: Jörn Rittweger

• German Aerospace Center (DLR) Oberpfaffenhofen, Earth Observation Center: Sabine Wüst