TRANSCAPE
Impacts of future urban mobility patterns and novel personalized air pollution exposure estimation on cardiometabolic health
Impacts of future urban mobility patterns and novel personalized air pollution exposure estimation on cardiometabolic health
Overview
The TRANSCAPE project aims to assess the impact of future urban transport landscapes on cardiometabolic health. Using agent-based modeling, the effects of future transportation scenarios on clinical and subclinial markers of cardiovascular disease as well as prevalent and incident cardiometabolic and cerebrovascular events will be examined: First, in scenarios where individual changes in the transportation landscape are implemented in the agent-based model while the rest of the environment (emissions from other sectors or the climate) is held constant; second, in a set of simulations based on comprehensive future scenarios using shared socio-economic pathways created for the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The project will implement novel exposure estimation through the use of an agent-based modeling approach together with numerical air quality modeling for health-relevant but understudied air pollutants such as ultrafine particles, black carbon, and metal compounds in particulate matter. This modeled data will then be combined with data from the KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Region Augsburg) cohort, a long-standing population-based cohort in the Augsburg region in Germany that has been intensively studied. The project will use data from an already-planned KORA health follow-up study with a special mobility questionnaire to assess travel behavior, along with data from personal exposure monitoring devices worn by volunteer participants to estimate individual time-activity and modeled air pollution exposures.
Using these inputs, an agent-based model will be used to realistically simulate the entire study area population’s travel behavior along with estimated chemically resolved traffic emissions—tailpipe and non-tailpipe—that are a direct result of their behavior. High-resolution chemistry-transport modeling, including all other regional and urban emission sources, will be used to generate spatio-temporal exposure maps for all relevant environmental factors using the transportation sector emissions estimated by the agent-based model. Individual exposure will then be estimated by connecting the simulated agents with real participants from the KORA cohort. Epidemiological analysis will then derive exposure-risk-relationships, which will be used to scale the results to the whole population in the study area in the age range of KORA participants (50 to 90+ years of age).
The project plans to later extend this approach to the Munich metropolitan area and then later to all of Germany.
To develop an exposure model for ultrafine particles, black carbon and metals of particulate matter, as these are understudied but have been shown to be of health relevance. The exposure model will have a high spatial and temporal resolution, taking into account both the spatio-temporal variability of the environmental factors and the temporal activity of the population under investigation. Our modeling approach will allow explicit consideration of other relevant environmental factors (PM2.5, trace gases (NO2 and O3), traffic noise, air temperature, green space, physical activity, socioeconomic status (SES)).
To link our exposure model with strong epidemiological evidence and use an existing population cohort (KORA, Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg) to estimate individual health effects. Cardiometabolic disease contributes a large proportion of the TRAP disease burden; therefore, we focus on clinical and subclinical markers of cardiometabolic disease. Individual health effects will be estimated for participants of the KORA cohort and then scaled up to the population level (Augsburg and region, Munich metropolitan area) and statistically to all of Germany using agent-based modeling.
To predict future changes in health burdens due to changes in urban transportation landscapes using two approaches: complex mobility scenarios to evaluate realistic projections that also take into account the effects of climate change, and a set of simple scenarios to disentangle the effects of individual key measures. The health impacts will be evaluated for the study region of Augsburg, the Munich metropolitan area, and then scaled up to the whole of Germany.
KORAThis study uses data from the population-based KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg) cohort study, which has been conducted in the city of Augsburg, Germany, and two surrounding rural districts, Augsburg and Aichach-Friedberg (see Figure), for almost 40 years, with cross-sectional surveys in 1984/1985 (S1), 1989/1990 (S2), 1994/1995 (S3), and most recently in 1999/2001 (S4).
The KORA follow-ups FF4 and FFF4 were conducted in 2013/2014 and 2021/2022 with 2,279 and 1,421 participants, respectively. Participants for the baseline surveys were recruited from the civil registry offices of Augsburg and 16 surrounding communities, stratified by sex and age group. Eligible participants had to be between 25 and 74 years of age, have German nationality, and have their primary residence in the study region. Regular morbidity and mortality follow-ups and re-examinations were conducted, focusing on diabetes, cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases, and environmental exposures.
The main study area of TRANSCAPE is the KORA study area with a total population of 650,000, where we have epidemiological evidence from the KORA cohort. The Munich Metropolitan Area is a larger region around the city of Munich with a total population of 4.5 million and includes the KORA study area (see Figure). The Munich Metropolitan Area is the spatial domain of our agent-based modeling system. Both study areas are located in southern Germany.
Health Effects InstituteHealth Effects Institute (HEI) (funding period: September 2024 - August 2027), https://www.healtheffects.org/
University of Augsburg, Faculty of Medicine, Chair of Model-based Environmental Exposure Science: Christoph Knote, https://www.uni-augsburg.de/en/fakultaet/med/profs/exposure-science/
Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Engineering and Design, Professorship of Travel Behavior: Joanna Ji, Zhihua Jin, Rolf Moeckel, https://www.mos.ed.tum.de/en/tb/start-page/
Helmholtz Munich, Institute of Epidemiology, Research Group Environmental Risks: Alexandra Schneider
LMU Munich, IBE: Susanne Breitner-Busch
The TRANSCAPE project aims to assess the impact of future urban transport landscapes on cardiometabolic health. Using agent-based modeling, the effects of future transportation scenarios on clinical and subclinial markers of cardiovascular disease as well as prevalent and incident cardiometabolic and cerebrovascular events will be examined: First, in scenarios where individual changes in the transportation landscape are implemented in the agent-based model while the rest of the environment (emissions from other sectors or the climate) is held constant; second, in a set of simulations based on comprehensive future scenarios using shared socio-economic pathways created for the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The project will implement novel exposure estimation through the use of an agent-based modeling approach together with numerical air quality modeling for health-relevant but understudied air pollutants such as ultrafine particles, black carbon, and metal compounds in particulate matter. This modeled data will then be combined with data from the KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Region Augsburg) cohort, a long-standing population-based cohort in the Augsburg region in Germany that has been intensively studied. The project will use data from an already-planned KORA health follow-up study with a special mobility questionnaire to assess travel behavior, along with data from personal exposure monitoring devices worn by volunteer participants to estimate individual time-activity and modeled air pollution exposures.
Using these inputs, an agent-based model will be used to realistically simulate the entire study area population’s travel behavior along with estimated chemically resolved traffic emissions—tailpipe and non-tailpipe—that are a direct result of their behavior. High-resolution chemistry-transport modeling, including all other regional and urban emission sources, will be used to generate spatio-temporal exposure maps for all relevant environmental factors using the transportation sector emissions estimated by the agent-based model. Individual exposure will then be estimated by connecting the simulated agents with real participants from the KORA cohort. Epidemiological analysis will then derive exposure-risk-relationships, which will be used to scale the results to the whole population in the study area in the age range of KORA participants (50 to 90+ years of age).
The project plans to later extend this approach to the Munich metropolitan area and then later to all of Germany.
To develop an exposure model for ultrafine particles, black carbon and metals of particulate matter, as these are understudied but have been shown to be of health relevance. The exposure model will have a high spatial and temporal resolution, taking into account both the spatio-temporal variability of the environmental factors and the temporal activity of the population under investigation. Our modeling approach will allow explicit consideration of other relevant environmental factors (PM2.5, trace gases (NO2 and O3), traffic noise, air temperature, green space, physical activity, socioeconomic status (SES)).
To link our exposure model with strong epidemiological evidence and use an existing population cohort (KORA, Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg) to estimate individual health effects. Cardiometabolic disease contributes a large proportion of the TRAP disease burden; therefore, we focus on clinical and subclinical markers of cardiometabolic disease. Individual health effects will be estimated for participants of the KORA cohort and then scaled up to the population level (Augsburg and region, Munich metropolitan area) and statistically to all of Germany using agent-based modeling.
To predict future changes in health burdens due to changes in urban transportation landscapes using two approaches: complex mobility scenarios to evaluate realistic projections that also take into account the effects of climate change, and a set of simple scenarios to disentangle the effects of individual key measures. The health impacts will be evaluated for the study region of Augsburg, the Munich metropolitan area, and then scaled up to the whole of Germany.
KORAThis study uses data from the population-based KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg) cohort study, which has been conducted in the city of Augsburg, Germany, and two surrounding rural districts, Augsburg and Aichach-Friedberg (see Figure), for almost 40 years, with cross-sectional surveys in 1984/1985 (S1), 1989/1990 (S2), 1994/1995 (S3), and most recently in 1999/2001 (S4).
The KORA follow-ups FF4 and FFF4 were conducted in 2013/2014 and 2021/2022 with 2,279 and 1,421 participants, respectively. Participants for the baseline surveys were recruited from the civil registry offices of Augsburg and 16 surrounding communities, stratified by sex and age group. Eligible participants had to be between 25 and 74 years of age, have German nationality, and have their primary residence in the study region. Regular morbidity and mortality follow-ups and re-examinations were conducted, focusing on diabetes, cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases, and environmental exposures.
The main study area of TRANSCAPE is the KORA study area with a total population of 650,000, where we have epidemiological evidence from the KORA cohort. The Munich Metropolitan Area is a larger region around the city of Munich with a total population of 4.5 million and includes the KORA study area (see Figure). The Munich Metropolitan Area is the spatial domain of our agent-based modeling system. Both study areas are located in southern Germany.
Health Effects InstituteHealth Effects Institute (HEI) (funding period: September 2024 - August 2027), https://www.healtheffects.org/
University of Augsburg, Faculty of Medicine, Chair of Model-based Environmental Exposure Science: Christoph Knote, https://www.uni-augsburg.de/en/fakultaet/med/profs/exposure-science/
Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Engineering and Design, Professorship of Travel Behavior: Joanna Ji, Zhihua Jin, Rolf Moeckel, https://www.mos.ed.tum.de/en/tb/start-page/
Helmholtz Munich, Institute of Epidemiology, Research Group Environmental Risks: Alexandra Schneider
LMU Munich, IBE: Susanne Breitner-Busch
